Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Esbjerg vs AC Horsens

Esbjerg vs AC Horsens Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 28 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 17:00

Esbjerg

PPG 1.92 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

AC Horsens

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.3%0-26.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.5%1-113.2%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.7%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.6%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Draw 32.2% 31.3% 3.20 +3.0%

Away win 33.6% 37.6% 2.66 -10.6%

Over 2.5 40.9% 50.0% 2.00 -18.2%

Over 3.5 20.5% 29.0% 3.45 -29.3%

BTTS 49.1% 58.8% 1.70 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.1%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 0–1✓ 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esbjerg1.2

AC Horsens1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESBJERG · PPG 1.92

AC HORSENS · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.92) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Esbjerg (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -14.5%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.0%

AC Horsens (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esbjerg face AC Horsens in Denmark - 1. Division on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esbjerg a 34% chance, the draw 32% and AC Horsens 34%, so Esbjerg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Esbjerg and 1.2 for AC Horsens (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esbjerg are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.43 for AC Horsens. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Esbjerg vs AC Horsens Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 1. Division Predictions