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Lusail City vs Al Bidda Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 16:00

Lusail City

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Bidda

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.7%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-18.5%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.3%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-17.0%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 67.6% 1.48 +2.1%

Draw 20.4% 25.6% 3.90 -20.4%

Away win 10.7% 18.2% 5.50 -41.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 37.2% — — —

BTTS 51.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.3%

H 69% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusail City2.3

Al Bidda0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSAIL CITY · PPG 2.17

AL BIDDA · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away POOR (0.83) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lusail City (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +2.1%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -20.4%

Al Bidda (A) 10.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -41.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusail City face Al Bidda in Qatar - Second Division on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusail City a 69% chance, the draw 20% and Al Bidda 11%, so Lusail City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lusail City and 0.8 for Al Bidda (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusail City are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Al Bidda. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Lusail City vs Al Bidda Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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