Leagues / SWITZERLAND / Challenge League

Challenge League

SWITZERLAND · 48 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

Upcoming Challenge League predictions

4 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT17:30 FC Aarau vs Rapperswil Over 2.5 64% 1.40 -11%4 SEPT17:30 SC Kriens vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy BTTS 55% 1.42 -22%4 SEPT18:15 Étoile Carouge vs FC WIL 1900 Over 2.5 60% 1.53 -9%4 SEPT18:15 FC Winterthur vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Over 2.5 60% 1.44 -14%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 44 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

56.8%

1X2

25/44

81.8%

O/U 2.5

36/44

75.0%

BTTS

33/44

56.8%

Exact score

25/44

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

75.0%

Hit rate

3/4

1.54

Avg odds

+16.8%

ROI

+0.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.50 · -0.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.68 · +68.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

50%

Hit

-21.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

100%

Hit

+55.0%

ROI

Match log

44 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 2 PICKS · 1 HIT · 1 MISS

1 SEPT Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge BTTS -26% 3–0 MISS 1 SEPT Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Yverdon Sport BTTS -20% 1–2 HIT

August 2026 // 11 PICKS · 7 HIT · 4 MISS

31 AUG FC WIL 1900 vs FC Aarau Over 2.5 -4% 2–2 HIT 28 AUG Yverdon Sport vs FC WIL 1900 Over 2.5 +2% 1–1 MISS 28 AUG Étoile Carouge vs Rapperswil BTTS -25% 2–1 HIT 28 AUG FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC BTTS -15% 2–1 HIT 23 AUG Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau Over 2.5 -1% 2–1 HIT 21 AUG Stade Nyonnais vs Étoile Carouge BTTS -18% 0–0 MISS 21 AUG Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy BTTS -16% 1–2 HIT 7 AUG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil Over 2.5 -10% 2–0 MISS 7 AUG Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC BTTS -24% 0–1 MISS 7 AUG FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Home -26% 2–1 HIT 1 AUG FC Aarau vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy BTTS -17% 1–1 HIT

July 2026 // 2 PICKS · 2 HIT · 0 MISS

31 JUL Stade Nyonnais vs Rapperswil Over 2.5 -6% 1–2 HIT 31 JUL FC WIL 1900 vs Neuchatel Xamax FC BTTS -0% 1–2 HIT