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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:30

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rapperswil

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.6%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.1%1-18.2%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-17.1%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.9%4+-24.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 69.4% 1.44 -24.0%

Draw 23.1% 23.1% 4.33 +0.0%

Away win 24.1% 16.7% 6.00 +26.8%

Over 2.5 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Over 3.5 40.8% 50.0% 2.00 -18.4%

BTTS 60.6% 66.7% 1.50 -9.1%

Home O1.5 62.4% 74.1% 1.35 -15.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 34.5% 2.90 +26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 88%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy2.3

Rapperswil1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY · PPG 1.85

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.66

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -24.0%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.0%

Rapperswil (A) 24.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy face Rapperswil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Rapperswil 24%, so Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.3 for Rapperswil (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.66 for Rapperswil. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.1%.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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