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Stade Nyonnais vs Étoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Étoile Carouge

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.0%0-27.9%0-33.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.6%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.9%2-17.1%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.9%3-12.7%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 29.9% 3.35 +1.5%

Draw 25.7% 27.0% 3.70 -2.9%

Away win 44.0% 52.6% 1.90 -16.4%

Over 2.5 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

BTTS 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 57.1% 1.75 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.0%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–2 7.9%

#5 0–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Nyonnais1.1

Étoile Carouge1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 1.01

ÉTOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stade Nyonnais (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +1.5%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.9%

Étoile Carouge (A) 44.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Nyonnais face Étoile Carouge in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Nyonnais a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Étoile Carouge 44%, so Étoile Carouge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Stade Nyonnais and 1.4 for Étoile Carouge (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Nyonnais are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.24 for Étoile Carouge. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Stade Nyonnais vs Étoile Carouge Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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