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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Yverdon Sport Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:30

Neuchatel Xamax FC

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Yverdon Sport

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.6%0-25.3%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.5%1-110.5%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.8%3-14.4%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Over 3.5 36.9% 51.8% 1.93 -28.8%

BTTS 61.5% 76.9% 1.30 -20.1%

Home O1.5 47.5% 55.6% 1.80 -14.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 60.6% 1.65 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2✓ 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neuchatel Xamax FC1.6

Yverdon Sport1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC · PPG 1.60

YVERDON SPORT · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Neuchatel Xamax FC (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Yverdon Sport (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC face Yverdon Sport in Switzerland - Challenge League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neuchatel Xamax FC a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Yverdon Sport 39%, so Yverdon Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.6 for Yverdon Sport (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neuchatel Xamax FC are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.77 for Yverdon Sport. This match finished 1-2.

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Yverdon Sport Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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