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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

Neuchatel Xamax FC

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.9%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.3%1-111.2%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.6%3-14.9%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 30.8% 3.25 +42.7%

Draw 23.9% 28.2% 3.55 -9.1%

Away win 32.2% 51.3% 1.95 -37.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

BTTS 60.3% 71.4% 1.40 -15.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 60.6% 1.65 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2✓ 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neuchatel Xamax FC1.6

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC · PPG 1.87

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY · PPG 1.32

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Neuchatel Xamax FC (H) 43.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +42.7%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.1%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (A) 32.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neuchatel Xamax FC a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 32%, so Neuchatel Xamax FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.4 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neuchatel Xamax FC are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.32 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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