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FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:15

FC Aarau

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Neuchatel Xamax FC

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.1%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.4%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.9%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 52.4% 1.91 -13.7%

Draw 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -5.9%

Away win 30.1% 30.8% 3.25 -2.2%

Over 2.5 55.8% 67.6% 1.48 -17.4%

Over 3.5 35.5% 46.5% 2.15 -23.7%

BTTS 59.9% 70.4% 1.42 -14.9%

Home O1.5 48.4% 61.7% 1.62 -21.6%

Away O1.5 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Aarau1.6

Neuchatel Xamax FC1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC AARAU · PPG 2.00

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Aarau (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.9%

Neuchatel Xamax FC (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Aarau face Neuchatel Xamax FC in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Aarau a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Neuchatel Xamax FC 30%, so FC Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Aarau and 1.3 for Neuchatel Xamax FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Aarau are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.70 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. This match finished 2-1.

FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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