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FC WIL 1900 vs FC Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:15

FC WIL 1900

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Aarau

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.4%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.6%1-19.9%1-28.8%1-35.2%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.7%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

Draw 23.3% 27.8% 3.60 -9.7%

Away win 44.1% 50.0% 2.00 -11.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.3% 45.5% 2.20 -11.3%

BTTS 61.5% 70.4% 1.42 -12.7%

Home O1.5 45.2% 46.5% 2.15 -2.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.5%

A 44% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2✓ 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC WIL 19001.6

FC Aarau1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC WIL 1900 · PPG 0.89

FC AARAU · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC WIL 1900 (H) 32.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.1%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.7%

FC Aarau (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC WIL 1900 face FC Aarau in Switzerland - Challenge League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC WIL 1900 a 33% chance, the draw 23% and FC Aarau 44%, so FC Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC WIL 1900 and 1.8 for FC Aarau (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC WIL 1900 are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.38 for FC Aarau. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 2-2.

FC WIL 1900 vs FC Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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