Today / Switzerland - Challenge League / Yverdon Sport vs FC WIL 1900

Yverdon Sport vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:30

Yverdon Sport

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC WIL 1900

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.3%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.7%1-16.3%1-23.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.9%2-18.8%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-18.1%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-111.0%4+-26.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 61.0% 1.64 +11.0%

Draw 16.2% 26.0% 3.85 -22.6%

Away win 16.1% 23.1% 4.33 -18.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 66.7% 1.50 +2.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

BTTS 59.9% 67.6% 1.48 -11.3%

Home O1.5 66.2% 66.7% 1.50 -0.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 68% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–0 7.3%

#5 1–1✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yverdon Sport2.8

FC WIL 19001.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YVERDON SPORT · PPG 1.85

FC WIL 1900 · PPG 1.32

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 1.85 vs 1.32 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Yverdon Sport (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +11.0%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -22.6%

FC WIL 1900 (A) 16.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yverdon Sport face FC WIL 1900 in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yverdon Sport a 68% chance, the draw 16% and FC WIL 1900 16%, so Yverdon Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Yverdon Sport and 1.1 for FC WIL 1900 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.32 for FC WIL 1900. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Yverdon Sport vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions