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Étoile Carouge vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:15

Étoile Carouge

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rapperswil

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.9%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.6%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.4%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 52.6% 1.90 -2.5%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 23.8% 29.9% 3.35 -12.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 66.7% 1.50 -24.3%

Over 3.5 30.4% 45.5% 2.20 -33.1%

BTTS 52.7% 70.4% 1.42 -25.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.7% 1.62 -20.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Étoile Carouge1.7

Rapperswil1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ÉTOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.30

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Étoile Carouge (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -2.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

Rapperswil (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Étoile Carouge face Rapperswil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Étoile Carouge a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Rapperswil 24%, so Étoile Carouge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Étoile Carouge and 1.0 for Rapperswil (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Étoile Carouge are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.30 for Rapperswil. This match finished 2-1.

Étoile Carouge vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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