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FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:15

FC Aarau

PPG 1.76 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.1%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.0%1-110.9%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Draw 26.8% 21.1% 4.75 +16.4%

Away win 20.7% 17.2% 5.80 +12.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 70.4% 1.42 -28.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 46.5% 2.15 -22.9%

BTTS 48.7% 63.7% 1.57 -23.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 74.1% 1.35 -33.6%

Away O1.5 20.4% 31.3% 3.20 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 88%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Aarau1.8

Stade Nyonnais0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC AARAU · PPG 1.76

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Aarau (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +16.4%

Stade Nyonnais (A) 20.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Aarau face Stade Nyonnais in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Aarau a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Stade Nyonnais 21%, so FC Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Aarau and 0.8 for Stade Nyonnais (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Aarau are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 0.64 for Stade Nyonnais. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%.

FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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