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Étoile Carouge vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:15

Étoile Carouge

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

UPCOMING

FC WIL 1900

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.5%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 57.8% 1.73 -11.8%

Draw 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Away win 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 65.4% 1.53 -8.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 43.5% 2.30 -16.3%

BTTS 55.9% 67.6% 1.48 -17.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 63.7% 1.57 -12.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Étoile Carouge1.9

FC WIL 19001.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ÉTOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.51

FC WIL 1900 · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Étoile Carouge (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

FC WIL 1900 (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Étoile Carouge face FC WIL 1900 in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Étoile Carouge a 51% chance, the draw 24% and FC WIL 1900 25%, so Étoile Carouge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Étoile Carouge and 1.1 for FC WIL 1900 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Étoile Carouge are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.28 for FC WIL 1900. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Étoile Carouge vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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