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FC Aarau vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

FC Aarau

PPG 2.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.0%0-26.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.2%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.7%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 51.3% 1.95 -23.4%

Draw 25.6% 26.7% 3.75 -2.4%

Away win 35.1% 32.3% 3.10 +8.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 71.4% 1.40 -25.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 50.0% 2.00 -35.6%

BTTS 55.4% 74.1% 1.35 -25.2%

Home O1.5 38.3% 63.7% 1.57 -39.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Aarau1.4

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC AARAU · PPG 2.01

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Aarau (H) 39.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -23.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.4%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Aarau face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Switzerland - Challenge League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Aarau a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 35%, so FC Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Aarau and 1.4 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Aarau are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.39 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

FC Aarau vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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