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Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:15

Étoile Carouge

PPG 1.66 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neuchatel Xamax FC

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.1%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.6%1-110.8%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.7%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.8%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 40.8% 2.45 +19.8%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 26.5% 40.8% 2.45 -21.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 32.5% 45.5% 2.20 -28.5%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Away O1.5 35.7% 54.1% 1.85 -34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 88%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Étoile Carouge1.8

Neuchatel Xamax FC1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ÉTOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.66

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Étoile Carouge (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +19.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Neuchatel Xamax FC (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Étoile Carouge face Neuchatel Xamax FC in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Étoile Carouge a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Neuchatel Xamax FC 27%, so Étoile Carouge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Étoile Carouge and 1.2 for Neuchatel Xamax FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Étoile Carouge are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.63 for Neuchatel Xamax FC.

Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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