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FC Aarau vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:30

FC Aarau

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

UPCOMING

Rapperswil

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.4%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.6%1-19.3%1-25.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.6%3-16.8%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.8%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 62.5% 1.60 -14.6%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 24.4% 22.7% 4.40 +4.4%

Over 2.5 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 60.2% 70.4% 1.42 -14.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Aarau2.1

Rapperswil1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC AARAU · PPG 2.13

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Aarau (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Rapperswil (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Aarau face Rapperswil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Aarau a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Rapperswil 24%, so FC Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Aarau and 1.2 for Rapperswil (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Aarau are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.13 for Rapperswil. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%.

FC Aarau vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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