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Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Yverdon Sport

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Aarau

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.6%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.2%1-19.4%1-26.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.1%3-16.6%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.4%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 24.4% 34.5% 2.90 -17.5%

Over 2.5 62.9% 63.7% 1.57 -1.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.0% 2.38 -6.2%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 59.1% 54.6% 1.83 +8.2%

Away O1.5 37.4% 45.5% 2.20 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yverdon Sport2.1

FC Aarau1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YVERDON SPORT · PPG 1.66

FC AARAU · PPG 1.61

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yverdon Sport (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

FC Aarau (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yverdon Sport face FC Aarau in Switzerland - Challenge League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yverdon Sport a 53% chance, the draw 23% and FC Aarau 24%, so Yverdon Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Yverdon Sport and 1.3 for FC Aarau (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.61 for FC Aarau. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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