Superettan

SWEDEN · 107 MATCHES TRACKED · 16 MAY 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

Upcoming Superettan predictions

2 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT17:00 Osters IF vs United Nordic Over 2.5 60% 1.50 -11%4 SEPT17:00 IFK Norrkoping vs Ljungskile SK Home 64% 1.55 -0%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 105 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

45.7%

1X2

48/105

51.4%

O/U 2.5

54/105

57.1%

BTTS

60/105

43.8%

Exact score

46/105

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

55.6%

Hit rate

30/54

1.75

Avg odds

-3.8%

ROI

-2.1u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=39 48.7% HIT · AVG 1.72 · -16.3% ROI

HOME WIN · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 1.84 · +47.8% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.80 · +18.2% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.20 · -100.0% ROI

BTTS · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.48 · +48.0% ROI

AWAY O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · +85.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

86%

Hit

+55.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

63%

Hit

+10.2%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

48%

Hit

-17.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-16.6%

ROI

Match log

105 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS

1 SEPT Helsingborg vs Orebro SK Over 2.5 +9% 1–1 MISS

August 2026 // 13 PICKS · 9 HIT · 4 MISS

31 AUG GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF BTTS -13% 1–0 MISS 30 AUG Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold Over 2.5 +9% 3–1 HIT 30 AUG Sandviken vs Osters IF Over 2.5 -9% 1–1 MISS 29 AUG Landskrona BoIS vs Ostersunds FK — NO PICK 1–1 —29 AUG Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo Over 2.5 -4% 0–1 MISS 29 AUG Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage HO1.5 4–1 HIT 29 AUG United Nordic vs IFK Norrkoping BTTS -19% 1–3 HIT 25 AUG Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC BTTS -12% 2–1 HIT 25 AUG Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall Home +16% 1–0 HIT 24 AUG Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK BTTS -9% 0–0 MISS 24 AUG IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS BTTS -17% 1–1 HIT 24 AUG IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF Over 2.5 -6% 2–1 HIT 23 AUG Oddevold vs Helsingborg BTTS -1% 3–1 HIT 23 AUG IK brage vs United Nordic Over 2.5 +3% 1–2 HIT