Superettan
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 56 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
51.8%
1X2
29/56
51.8%
O/U 2.5
29/56
55.4%
BTTS
31/56
35.7%
Exact score
20/56
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
52
Settled
57.7%
Hit rate
30/52
1.69
Avg odds
-3.3%
ROI
-1.7u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=25 56.0% HIT · AVG 1.74 · -2.8% ROI
BTTS · N=19 57.9% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -8.7% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +29.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.77 · +15.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.20 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
75%
Hit
+37.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+23.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
11
Bets
55%
Hit
-10.7%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
31
Bets
55%
Hit
-11.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
June 2026 // 14 PICKS · 10 HIT · 4 MISS
28 JUN Landskrona vs Varnamo Home +28% 1–0 HIT28 JUN Norrkoping vs Norrby Home -9% 0–1 MISS28 JUN Sandviken vs Helsingborg Over 2.5 +7% 4–2 HIT27 JUN Varberg BoIS vs Oster Over 2.5 +8% 2–1 HIT27 JUN Ljungskile vs Orebro — NO PICK 3–2 —27 JUN GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds Over 2.5 +20% 0–2 MISS27 JUN United Nordic vs Oddevold BTTS -1% 3–3 HIT26 JUN Brage vs Falkenberg BTTS +2% 2–4 HIT22 JUN Varberg BoIS vs Landskrona BTTS -7% 2–3 HIT22 JUN Oddevold vs Ljungskile Over 2.5 +10% 0–0 MISS22 JUN Orebro vs Sandviken BTTS -17% 1–1 HIT21 JUN Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall HO1.5 5–2 HIT21 JUN Oster vs Falkenberg Over 2.5 -4% 1–3 HIT21 JUN Brage vs Varnamo Over 2.5 +10% 5–1 HIT21 JUN Norrby vs United Nordic Over 2.5 +2% 0–0 MISS