Today / Sweden - Superettan / United Nordic vs IFK Norrkoping

United Nordic vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

United Nordic

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

IFK Norrkoping

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.0%0-29.6%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.0%2-15.9%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 29.0% 3.45 -7.6%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 52.7% 65.4% 1.53 -19.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 40.8% 2.45 -24.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 56.5% 1.77 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.7%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

United Nordic1.0

IFK Norrkoping1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.90

IFK NORRKOPING · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

United Nordic (H) 25.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

IFK Norrkoping (A) 48.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

United Nordic face IFK Norrkoping in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives United Nordic a 25% chance, the draw 26% and IFK Norrkoping 48%, so IFK Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for United Nordic and 1.5 for IFK Norrkoping (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, United Nordic are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 2.20 for IFK Norrkoping. This match finished 1-3.

United Nordic vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Superettan Predictions