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IFK Norrkoping vs Ljungskile SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

IFK Norrkoping

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

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UPCOMING

Ljungskile SK

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-14.7%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-19.4%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-16.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 65.4% 1.53 -1.6%

Draw 20.8% 23.8% 4.20 -7.6%

Away win 14.9% 18.5% 5.40 -11.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.3%

BTTS 49.9% 61.7% 1.62 -19.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 66.7% 1.50 -16.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 31.3% 3.20 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Norrkoping2.0

Ljungskile SK0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK NORRKOPING · PPG 2.20

LJUNGSKILE SK · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Norrkoping (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -1.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.6%

Ljungskile SK (A) 14.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Norrkoping face Ljungskile SK in Sweden - Superettan on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Norrkoping a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Ljungskile SK 15%, so IFK Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IFK Norrkoping and 0.7 for Ljungskile SK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Norrkoping are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.10 for Ljungskile SK.

IFK Norrkoping vs Ljungskile SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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