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Osters IF vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 17:00

Osters IF logo
Osters IF
PPG 1.90 · HOME
LAST 5
LLWWD
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME
GIF Sundsvall logo
GIF Sundsvall
PPG 0.33 · AWAY
LAST 5
LLDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.9%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-17.2%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.2%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.6%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-18.7%4+-23.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 66.3% 57.1% 1.75 +16.0%
Draw 19.0% 26.3% 3.80 -16.7%
Away win 14.7% 23.8% 4.20 -23.0%
Over 2.5 60.9% 62.5% 1.60 -2.6%
Over 3.5 38.4% 40.8% 2.45 -5.9%
BTTS 52.7% 65.4% 1.53 -19.4%
Home O1.5 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%
Away O1.5 18.2% 37.0% 2.70 -30.5%

League track record

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5 51%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 44%
ROI -3.8%
Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%
#2 3–0 10.2%
#3 1–1 7.2%
#4 2–1 9.0%
#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osters IF2.5
GIF Sundsvall0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERS IF · PPG 1.90

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 1.90 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Osters IF (H) 66.3%
ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +16.0%
Draw 19.0%
ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.7%
GIF Sundsvall (A) 14.7%
ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -23.0%

Season Statistics average per match · 9 matches · 2026

Osters IF ▾ lower is better GIF Sundsvall

Attack

3.4
Shots
6.0
4.0
Shots on target
2.6
5.1
Shots off target
4.2
0.6
Blocked shots
1.0
0.3
Shots inside box
2.8
0.6
Shots outside box
1.1
116.1%
Shooting accuracy
42.6%
30.6%
Goals per shot on target
21.7%
1.22
Goals
0.56
0.39
xG for 1·4 of 9
1.45

Defence

7.8
Shots faced
9.3
5.9
Shots on target faced
5.0
1.22
Goals conceded
1.89
1.46
xG against 1·4 of 9
1.32
0.4
Goalkeeper saves
1.0

Control

50.4%
Possession
40.7%
54
Passes
159
44
Accurate passes
125
81.1%
Pass accuracy
78.6%
5.2
Corners
4.3
6.6
Corners faced
5.4
0.1
Offsides
0.6

Discipline

2.7
Fouls
5.1
1.3
Yellow cards
1.4
0.00
Red cards
0.00

Match Preview & Prediction

Osters IF face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osters IF a 66% chance, the draw 19% and GIF Sundsvall 15%, so Osters IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Osters IF and 0.7 for GIF Sundsvall (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osters IF are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.33 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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