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Helsingborg vs Orebro SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:00

Helsingborg

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Orebro SK

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.4%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.2%1-19.2%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.7%4+-23.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 46.5% 2.15 +11.2%

Draw 21.2% 27.4% 3.65 -13.6%

Away win 27.1% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 59.9% 1.67 +8.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 37.7% 2.65 +18.7%

BTTS 62.6% 65.4% 1.53 -4.2%

Home O1.5 60.2% 52.4% 1.91 +15.0%

Away O1.5 37.8% 42.6% 2.35 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.6%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helsingborg2.1

Orebro SK1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.40

OREBRO SK · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Helsingborg (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +11.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.6%

Orebro SK (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helsingborg face Orebro SK in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helsingborg a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Orebro SK 27%, so Helsingborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Helsingborg and 1.3 for Orebro SK (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helsingborg are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.70 for Orebro SK. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Helsingborg vs Orebro SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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