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Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Ljungskile SK

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IFK Varnamo

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.7%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.9%1-19.7%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.8%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.5%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Draw 23.0% 27.4% 3.65 -9.6%

Away win 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.8% 2.45 -10.1%

BTTS 55.0% 67.6% 1.48 -18.6%

Home O1.5 58.5% 55.6% 1.80 +5.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 44.4% 2.25 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ljungskile SK2.0

IFK Varnamo1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LJUNGSKILE SK · PPG 1.30

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ljungskile SK (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +10.7%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.6%

IFK Varnamo (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ljungskile SK face IFK Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ljungskile SK a 53% chance, the draw 23% and IFK Varnamo 24%, so Ljungskile SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ljungskile SK and 1.1 for IFK Varnamo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.90 for IFK Varnamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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