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Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:00

Ostersunds FK

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ljungskile SK

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.9%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.5%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 54.1% 1.85 -4.7%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -6.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds FK1.7

Ljungskile SK1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS FK · PPG 2.22

LJUNGSKILE SK · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds FK (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Ljungskile SK (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds FK face Ljungskile SK in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds FK a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Ljungskile SK 24%, so Ostersunds FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ostersunds FK and 1.1 for Ljungskile SK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds FK are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.11 for Ljungskile SK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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