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Oddevold vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Helsingborg

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.2%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.3%1-18.8%1-26.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Draw 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

Away win 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Over 2.5 62.6% 57.8% 1.73 +8.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 36.4% 2.75 +8.3%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 59.6% 54.6% 1.83 +9.1%

Away O1.5 41.2% 36.4% 2.75 +13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.6%

#4 3–1✓ 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold2.1

Helsingborg1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.11

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.0%

Helsingborg (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Helsingborg 25%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Oddevold and 1.4 for Helsingborg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.22 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Oddevold vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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