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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Varbergs BoIS FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oddevold

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.8%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.9%1-110.4%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.7%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 43.5% 2.30 +4.9%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 29.8% 34.7% 2.88 -8.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.6% 1.83 +9.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

BTTS 55.1% 61.7% 1.62 -10.7%

Home O1.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Away O1.5 40.8% 41.7% 2.40 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.1%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varbergs BoIS FC1.8

Oddevold1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VARBERGS BOIS FC · PPG 1.90

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Varbergs BoIS FC (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Oddevold (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varbergs BoIS FC face Oddevold in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Oddevold 30%, so Varbergs BoIS FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.3 for Oddevold (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.60 for Oddevold. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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