Today / Sweden - Superettan / IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:05

IFK Norrkoping

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.2%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-16.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 63.7% 1.57 -11.1%

Draw 21.9% 25.6% 3.90 -8.8%

Away win 21.4% 21.1% 4.75 +1.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.0% 2.38 -12.7%

BTTS 54.3% 62.5% 1.60 -13.1%

Home O1.5 61.0% 65.4% 1.53 -6.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Norrkoping2.1

Falkenbergs FF0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK NORRKOPING · PPG 2.11

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Norrkoping (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -11.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.8%

Falkenbergs FF (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Norrkoping face Falkenbergs FF in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Norrkoping a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Falkenbergs FF 21%, so IFK Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for IFK Norrkoping and 0.9 for Falkenbergs FF (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Norrkoping are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.89 for Falkenbergs FF. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 2-1.

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Superettan Predictions