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IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:00

IFK Varnamo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Landskrona BoIS

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.4%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.6%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 44.4% 2.25 -27.6%

Draw 25.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.3%

Away win 41.8% 36.4% 2.75 +14.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 59.9% 1.67 -15.7%

Over 3.5 30.2% 38.2% 2.62 -20.9%

BTTS 53.6% 64.5% 1.55 -16.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 50.0% 2.00 -38.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.6%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Varnamo1.1

Landskrona BoIS1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 1.00

LANDSKRONA BOIS · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Varnamo (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -27.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.3%

Landskrona BoIS (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Varnamo face Landskrona BoIS in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Varnamo a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Landskrona BoIS 42%, so Landskrona BoIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for IFK Varnamo and 1.5 for Landskrona BoIS (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Landskrona BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-1.

IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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