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IK brage vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

IK brage

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

United Nordic

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.0%0-24.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.5%1-19.2%1-27.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.1%3-15.2%3-24.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 42.0% 2.38 +3.5%

Draw 22.0% 30.3% 3.30 -16.4%

Away win 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 2.5 64.6% 62.5% 1.60 +3.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 40.0% 2.50 +8.8%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 52.4% 1.91 +4.9%

Away O1.5 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2✓ 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IK brage1.8

United Nordic1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IK BRAGE · PPG 1.11

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IK brage (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +3.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.4%

United Nordic (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

IK brage face United Nordic in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IK brage a 44% chance, the draw 22% and United Nordic 35%, so IK brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IK brage and 1.7 for United Nordic (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IK brage are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.11 for United Nordic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-2.

IK brage vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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