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Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IK brage

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+21.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.9%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.5%1-18.5%1-25.6%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-17.0%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-16.5%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Draw 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Away win 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Over 2.5 64.5% 59.9% 1.67 +7.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 37.7% 2.65 +14.5%

BTTS 62.8% 65.4% 1.53 -3.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 54.1% 1.85 +21.7%

Away O1.5 40.8% 41.7% 2.40 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.8%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenbergs FF2.2

IK brage1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 1.80

IK BRAGE · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Falkenbergs FF (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

IK brage (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenbergs FF face IK brage in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenbergs FF a 54% chance, the draw 22% and IK brage 24%, so Falkenbergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Falkenbergs FF and 1.3 for IK brage (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for IK brage. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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