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Osters IF vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Osters IF

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

UPCOMING

United Nordic

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.5%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.8%1-111.1%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 41.7% 2.40 +11.6%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 29.3% 38.5% 2.60 -14.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.3% 45.5% 2.20 -20.1%

BTTS 58.5% 72.5% 1.38 -19.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 52.6% 1.90 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osters IF1.7

United Nordic1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERS IF · PPG 2.00

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Osters IF (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

United Nordic (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osters IF face United Nordic in Sweden - Superettan on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osters IF a 47% chance, the draw 24% and United Nordic 29%, so Osters IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Osters IF and 1.3 for United Nordic (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osters IF are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.30 for United Nordic. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.8%.

Osters IF vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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