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Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 17:00

Orebro SK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Varbergs BoIS FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.3%0-29.4%0-35.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.6%2-15.9%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% 37.0% 2.70 -20.2%

Draw 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -9.4%

Away win 50.6% 40.8% 2.45 +24.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

BTTS 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 42.0% 2.38 -26.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.3%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro SK1.0

Varbergs BoIS FC1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO SK · PPG 1.00

VARBERGS BOIS FC · PPG 1.67

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Orebro SK (H) 24.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.4%

Varbergs BoIS FC (A) 50.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro SK face Varbergs BoIS FC in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro SK a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Varbergs BoIS FC 51%, so Varbergs BoIS FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orebro SK and 1.7 for Varbergs BoIS FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro SK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Varbergs BoIS FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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