Today / Peru - Primera División / ADT vs Sport Huancayo

ADT vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:15

ADT

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sport Huancayo

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.5%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-19.5%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 40.0% 2.50 +40.0%

Draw 22.1% 30.8% 3.25 -16.9%

Away win 21.9% 38.2% 2.62 -25.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 30.8% 3.25 +19.3%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 59.6% 42.0% 2.38 +41.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 42.0% 2.38 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT2.1

Sport Huancayo0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.25

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 56.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +40.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.9%

Sport Huancayo (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Sport Huancayo 22%, so ADT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for ADT and 0.9 for Sport Huancayo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.42 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +108.2%. This match finished 1-3.

ADT vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions