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FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:30

FBC Melgar

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alianza Lima

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-110.2%0-25.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.4%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Draw 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -9.0%

Away win 29.9% 27.0% 3.70 +6.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 45.5% 2.20 +10.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% 25.0% 4.00 +7.7%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

Away O1.5 34.1% 26.7% 3.75 +27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar1.3

Alianza Lima1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 2.00

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Alianza Lima (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 30%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FBC Melgar and 1.1 for Alianza Lima (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 1-1.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions