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Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:30

Alianza Lima

PPG 2.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-15.1%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.8%1-19.0%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.7%3-14.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-13.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 76.9% 1.30 -27.2%

Draw 22.8% 23.1% 4.33 -0.8%

Away win 21.3% 9.1% 11.00 +80.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 52.6% 1.90 -14.9%

Over 3.5 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

BTTS 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Away O1.5 15.1% 14.3% 7.00 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 2–0 16.5%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–1✓ 5.1%

#5 1–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Lima1.8

Deportivo Garcilaso0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 2.82

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Lima (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -27.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -0.8%

Deportivo Garcilaso (A) 21.3%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +80.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Lima face Deportivo Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Lima a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Deportivo Garcilaso 21%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Alianza Lima and 0.5 for Deportivo Garcilaso (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Lima are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 0.91 for Deportivo Garcilaso. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions