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Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 20:00

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.7%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.2%1-19.6%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-16.7%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 63.7% 1.57 -11.1%

Draw 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Away win 21.4% 16.9% 5.90 +15.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 31.3% 3.20 +17.4%

BTTS 54.3% 54.1% 1.85 +0.5%

Home O1.5 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Away O1.5 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes Unidos2.0

FC Cajamarca0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 1.82

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes Unidos (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -11.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

FC Cajamarca (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes Unidos face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes Unidos a 57% chance, the draw 22% and FC Cajamarca 21%, so Comerciantes Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.9 for FC Cajamarca (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes Unidos are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.73 for FC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions