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Sport Huancayo vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

UCV Moquegua

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.0%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.6%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 73.5% 1.36 -27.5%

Draw 24.6% 22.5% 4.45 +5.7%

Away win 22.1% 11.1% 9.00 +59.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

Over 3.5 28.4% 35.1% 2.85 -11.4%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 67.6% 1.48 -27.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo1.8

UCV Moquegua0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.80

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -27.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +5.7%

UCV Moquegua (A) 22.1%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +59.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face UCV Moquegua in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 53% chance, the draw 25% and UCV Moquegua 22%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sport Huancayo and 0.7 for UCV Moquegua (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.45 for UCV Moquegua. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Sport Huancayo vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions