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UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

UCV Moquegua

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Alianza Atletico

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.3%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 26.8% 34.7% 2.88 -13.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 40.0% 2.50 +0.3%

Away O1.5 25.2% 36.4% 2.75 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua1.5

Alianza Atletico0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 1.55

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Alianza Atletico (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face Alianza Atletico in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Alianza Atletico 27%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for UCV Moquegua and 0.9 for Alianza Atletico (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.75 for Alianza Atletico. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 1-4.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions