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Cienciano vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 00:00

Cienciano

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cusco

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+16.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.2%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.7%1-16.2%1-23.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.0%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-111.3%4+-26.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 47.2% 2.12 +32.5%

Draw 16.7% 28.2% 3.55 -24.4%

Away win 20.9% 31.3% 3.20 -19.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 58.8% 1.70 +16.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 36.4% 2.75 +23.8%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 66.7% 52.4% 1.91 +27.4%

Away O1.5 32.9% 40.8% 2.45 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 62% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cienciano2.8

Cusco1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CIENCIANO · PPG 2.17

CUSCO · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cienciano (H) 62.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +32.5%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -24.4%

Cusco (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face Cusco in Peru - Primera División on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 63% chance, the draw 17% and Cusco 21%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Cienciano and 1.1 for Cusco (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Cusco. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +104.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Cienciano vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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