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UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:15

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.7%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 52.1% 1.92 -10.0%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 28.8% 24.4% 4.10 +10.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 47.6% 2.10 +12.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 26.0% 3.85 +19.0%

BTTS 53.7% 54.1% 1.85 -0.7%

Home O1.5 46.1% 47.6% 2.10 -3.2%

Away O1.5 27.8% 28.2% 3.55 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UTC Cajamarca1.6

Comerciantes Unidos1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.20

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UTC Cajamarca (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -10.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Comerciantes Unidos (A) 28.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

UTC Cajamarca face Comerciantes Unidos in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UTC Cajamarca a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Comerciantes Unidos 29%, so UTC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.0 for Comerciantes Unidos (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UTC Cajamarca are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.55 for Comerciantes Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 1-3.

UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions