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Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:15

Alianza Atletico

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

UPCOMING

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.1%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-18.7%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-16.6%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-15.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 59.9% 1.67 +10.2%

Draw 19.5% 26.7% 3.75 -16.1%

Away win 14.5% 20.4% 4.90 -17.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 52.6% 1.90 +13.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 50.7% 54.6% 1.83 -7.2%

Home O1.5 60.2% 56.5% 1.77 +6.6%

Away O1.5 18.8% 27.0% 3.70 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.7%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 3–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Atletico2.1

UTC Cajamarca0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 2.00

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Atletico (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +10.2%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -16.1%

UTC Cajamarca (A) 14.5%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Atletico face UTC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Atletico a 66% chance, the draw 20% and UTC Cajamarca 14%, so Alianza Atletico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Alianza Atletico and 0.7 for UTC Cajamarca (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Atletico are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for UTC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions