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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cusco

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 36.4% — a clear edge.

+63.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.5%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-19.3%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.7%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 40.0% 2.50 +39.8%

Draw 22.2% 33.3% 3.00 -20.0%

Away win 21.9% 36.4% 2.75 -23.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 36.4% 2.75 +63.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 40.0% 2.50 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Garcilaso2.1

Cusco0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 2.36

CUSCO · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Garcilaso (H) 55.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +39.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.0%

Cusco (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso face Cusco in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Cusco 22%, so Deportivo Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.8 for Cusco (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Garcilaso are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.91 for Cusco. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +80.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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