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Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 20:00

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.2%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 37.7% 2.65 +12.4%

Draw 28.1% 32.8% 3.05 -8.6%

Away win 29.5% 36.2% 2.76 -11.2%

Over 2.5 43.2% 44.4% 2.25 -2.8%

Over 3.5 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 35.7% 2.80 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau1.1

FBC Melgar0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.55

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +12.4%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.6%

FBC Melgar (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face FBC Melgar in Peru - Primera División on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 42% chance, the draw 28% and FBC Melgar 30%, so Atletico Grau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atletico Grau and 0.9 for FBC Melgar (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.45 for FBC Melgar. This match finished 1-0.

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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