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Universitario vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:30

Universitario

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.6%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-19.5%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.6%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 76.9% 1.30 -27.3%

Draw 22.2% 20.8% 4.80 +3.9%

Away win 21.9% 11.1% 9.00 +58.3%

Over 2.5 56.9% 58.8% 1.70 -3.3%

Over 3.5 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

BTTS 53.0% 48.8% 2.05 +8.6%

Home O1.5 57.8% 69.4% 1.44 -16.8%

Away O1.5 18.3% 16.7% 6.00 +5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario2.0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 2.27

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitario (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -27.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.9%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (A) 21.9%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +58.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario face Club Deportivo Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Club Deportivo Los Chankas 22%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Universitario and 0.8 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.30 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Universitario vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions