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Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:30

Sport Boys

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Sporting Cristal

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+26.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-110.2%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 40.8% 2.45 +37.7%

Draw 22.3% 31.3% 3.20 -17.2%

Away win 21.5% 37.0% 2.70 -25.2%

Over 2.5 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

Over 3.5 35.4% 30.8% 3.25 +15.0%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 44.4% 2.25 +26.7%

Away O1.5 23.5% 38.2% 2.62 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0✓ 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Boys1.9

Sporting Cristal0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT BOYS · PPG 1.92

SPORTING CRISTAL · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sport Boys (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +37.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.2%

Sporting Cristal (A) 21.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Boys face Sporting Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Boys a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Sporting Cristal 22%, so Sport Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sport Boys and 0.8 for Sporting Cristal (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Boys are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.50 for Sporting Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +66.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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