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FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

UPCOMING

Cienciano

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.2%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.2%1-18.9%1-26.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.5%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.5%4+-23.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 33.6% 2.98 +53.5%

Draw 21.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

Away win 27.4% 45.0% 2.22 -23.5%

Over 2.5 66.8% 58.8% 1.70 +13.6%

Over 3.5 44.9% 36.4% 2.75 +23.5%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 60.2% 42.0% 2.38 +43.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca2.1

Cienciano1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.08

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +53.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.7%

Cienciano (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Cienciano 27%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Cajamarca and 1.4 for Cienciano (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.00 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +91.4%.

FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions