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UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:30

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Universitario

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.2%0-26.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-17.7%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 28.2% 3.55 +26.4%

Draw 26.8% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Away win 37.6% 48.5% 2.06 -22.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Away O1.5 33.3% 46.5% 2.15 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UTC Cajamarca1.2

Universitario1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.09

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UTC Cajamarca (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +26.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

Universitario (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

UTC Cajamarca face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UTC Cajamarca a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Universitario 38%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.2 for Universitario (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UTC Cajamarca are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.27 for Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-4.

UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions