NB I

HUNGARY · 24 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 16 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 23 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

56.5%

1X2

13/23

65.2%

O/U 2.5

15/23

65.2%

BTTS

15/23

47.8%

Exact score

11/23

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

65.2%

Hit rate

15/23

1.56

Avg odds

+2.2%

ROI

+0.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=12 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.58 · +7.3% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=9 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.57 · -13.0% ROI

HOME WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.40 · +39.5% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-17.5%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+6.7%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

67%

Hit

+3.0%

ROI

Match log

23 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 9 HIT · 2 MISS

16 MAY Kisvarda vs Gyor Over 2.5 -10% 0–1 MISS 16 MAY Ferencvaros vs Zalaegerszegi Over 2.5 -12% 3–0 HIT 16 MAY DVTK vs Paks Over 2.5 -15% 1–3 HIT 16 MAY Debrecen vs Ujpest BTTS -7% 2–1 HIT 15 MAY Nyiregyhaza vs Kazincbarcika Over 2.5 -8% 2–2 HIT 15 MAY Puskas A. vs MTK Budapest Over 2.5 -4% 2–2 HIT 3 MAY Paks vs Debrecen BTTS -12% 5–2 HIT 3 MAY Ujpest vs Ferencvaros BTTS -6% 0–5 MISS 2 MAY MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza BTTS +8% 1–1 HIT 2 MAY Kazincbarcika vs Kisvarda BTTS -7% 2–1 HIT 1 MAY Zalaegerszegi vs Puskas A. BTTS -8% 1–3 HIT

April 2026 // 4 PICKS · 1 HIT · 3 MISS

26 APR Ferencvaros vs Paks Over 2.5 -17% 2–0 MISS 26 APR Debrecen vs Gyor Over 2.5 -1% 1–1 MISS 25 APR Kisvarda vs DVTK BTTS -11% 1–2 HIT 25 APR Puskas A. vs Ujpest BTTS -11% 2–0 MISS