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Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Debreceni VSC

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.7%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.8%1-112.1%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 47.2% 2.12 -18.0%

Draw 26.1% 27.8% 3.60 -3.6%

Away win 35.2% 34.0% 2.94 +3.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Over 3.5 31.5% 42.6% 2.35 -26.0%

BTTS 54.9% 69.0% 1.45 -20.4%

Home O1.5 38.8% 55.6% 1.80 -30.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.5% 2.15 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Debreceni VSC1.4

MTK Budapest1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEBRECENI VSC · PPG 1.46

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Debreceni VSC (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -18.0%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.6%

MTK Budapest (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Debreceni VSC face MTK Budapest in Hungary - NB I on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Debreceni VSC a 39% chance, the draw 26% and MTK Budapest 35%, so Debreceni VSC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Debreceni VSC and 1.4 for MTK Budapest (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Debreceni VSC are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.04 for MTK Budapest. This match finished 2-2.

Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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