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Paks vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

Paks

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ujpest

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.8%0-22.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-03.2%1-16.4%1-26.4%1-34.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.2%2-27.2%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.7%3-15.4%3-25.4%3-33.6%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.2%4+-25.2%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 53.2% 1.88 -19.9%

Draw 20.5% 25.6% 3.90 -12.0%

Away win 36.9% 29.9% 3.35 +23.6%

Over 2.5 71.8% 70.4% 1.42 +2.0%

Over 3.5 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

BTTS 69.1% 72.5% 1.38 -4.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 63.7% 1.57 +2.2%

Away O1.5 55.2% 46.5% 2.15 +18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.1%

H 43% / xG 2.3-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paks2.3

Ujpest2.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKS · PPG 1.76

UJPEST · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paks (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -19.9%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -12.0%

Ujpest (A) 36.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paks face Ujpest in Hungary - NB I on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paks a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Ujpest 37%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Paks and 2.0 for Ujpest (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paks are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.32 for Ujpest. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Paks vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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